The Facts about Fire Emergencies and Lockdowns
The following is an analysis based on data published by the National Fire Protection Association. This analysis will determine the probability of being injured by a fire event while a classroom door is locked for lockdown drills or emergencies. Conclusion: You are four times more likely to be hit by lightening in a given year than to be injured by fire in a classroom that has been locked down.
Assumptions:
1. School structure fires (contained and uncontained) were cause for a classroom egress event.
2. Only structures occupied during school classroom hours were cause for a classroom egress event. 6 hours per day or 25%
3. Only structures occupied during school days (180 days per year) in the school season (September through June) were cause for a classroom egress event.
4. LockDown drills happen during the school season, during school hours, and 4 times per school year for 5 minutes each. (20 minutes)
5. Non-Drill Lock Downs occur twice per year (20 minutes each, 40 minutes total)
6. Ratio of injuries to fires is proportional 57 injuries/3430 structure fires
7. Assume all of injuries are while classrooms are occupied.
8. 140000 public, private, and charter schools in the US (Source: Ed Week)
9. Civilian Injuries 57
10. Seasonality did not appear to be a factor in school structure fires, therefore we assume a ratio of 180/365 days in which school classrooms would be occupied.
11. According to the NFPA report cited below, 31% of the fires were contained in lavatories and locker rooms. TeacherLock would not be installed in lavatories and locker rooms.
Results:
School structure fires while room is occupied, requiring egress: 296
= 3480 fires * (180/365) days per school year * .25 (6hours/24hours) percent of day * (100-31% of fires in lavatories and locker rooms)
Probability any given school will need to egress due to a fire in a school year:
1 in 473
= 296 / 140000 schools
Probability of fires likely to happen during the time a room is in lockdown or lockdown drill:
1 in 510810
1 / ( (1 hour per school year / (6 hours*180 days)) * 296 fires while classroom is occupied / 140000 number of schools
Probability of injury from a school fire while a room is in lockdown:
1 in 2,652,627
57 injuries / 296 fires while classroom is occupied * probability of fire during lockdown (1/510810)
Probability of injury during an active shooter incident: 1 in 166. Source Ed Week. 2018
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